So the American market has blown off some steam.Yes this is all part of a recovery.Since the market has started up from its lowest point in the recession ,it has now had three reversals of between four and eight percent.This last one had two of the three days reversals of over two hundred points.
After such an event it does not take off immediately on its upward path again but hesitates while confidence has to be rebuilt.It can be said this gives one a second chance of getting in again ,if you missed the upturn the first time round.Do remember the average increase is over fifty percent from the lowest prices in the recession for the ALSI Index
Go to VEIW MY COMPLETE PROFILE then to BLOGS I FOLLOW TO VEIW MY OTHER BLOGS
I see gold stock in general and Harmony's CE0 in particular are worried about the huge costs of mining and the huge burden of repayments that has to be made.
Amplats has suffered from the report that they expected a much lower income,I should say are unlikely to gather momentum for fast increases any time soon ,although the future next uyear is very bright.
Kumba and Exxaro have a brighter future at thei stage.
MINI UPDATE 1/FEB/2010
AT A MINING CONFERENCE McCloskey of their contractor group said recently the COAL price is likely to move up within the next eight months from Aroung $124 to $200 for steam coal.This was confirmed by the Anglo american delegate.
Of great importance to South Africa is that now 75% of our Coal is exported to India and China as we are in a stragecic position and unlike other minerals are never going to loose this market.In time we should be able to export more for this ever growing market.
9/2/2010 mini update
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have asked China and Japan for a 40% increase in iron ore prices this year.Both Japan and China realise prices must go up,but I expect tough negotiations to follow and probably the increase will be nearer 15%
11/2/2010 mini update
It is said that the economy of China will soon overcome that of Japan. Still it will only be a third the size of the United States.
Some fear that it will eventually become the largest ecomony ahead of the United States even if it takes twenty years.There was the fear earlier that Japan would over take America.Due to many constraints this never materialised.
Now the likelyhood of this happening with China is slim as China has such a large population that must be looked after.First they must overcome several bubbles in their economy that are likely to occur.Still not having the complete free market system would mask many "bubbles" that likley to occur.At the moment their banks carry a huge debt and efforts to save them are masked and the public are not aware of the true situation.
One thing is clear is that Japan might welcome slipping into third place as then the vindictive world would concentrate on reigning in China and leave Japan to recover and its economy to thrive as they are a fully free market economy.They have been bullied mostly by the United States over the last decade and they slipped into a long drawn out recession as a result of trying to comply with the demands placed upon them.
The United States more in fustration of their own economic woes is now picking on China and there tensions building between the two.One manifestation is that the United States is suddenly worried about "human rights " some thing that not worried them for many years in the past. Google of course is also suddenly worried about Chinese interference of their programmes,also something that did not worry them in the past.
This is likely to support precious metals as there is fear that China might put pressure upon America by turning partially to gold and also withdrawing funds fromAmerica and them in turn declaring that the Chinese holdings are annexed and that their money is worthless.I am sure none of this is likely to come to pass as cooler heads on both sides of the Pacific are likely to prevail.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010
Update no3 2010
It seems as if Greece is not over its monetary problems yet,This is likely to keep supporting the GOLD price.The European Union also seems restless as the Greek situation is having a knock on effect.In America their government is at the moment seems able to manage their debt situation well, as the promise of things coming right is ,pushing the actual situation into the back ground so there is no likely hood of upward pressure on the yellow metal.Gold is like therefore to be range bound probably staying above $1080 per ounce for the month.Physical demand for the metal is picking up as well as various reserve banks through out the world replenish their stocks and ETF's are still in demand as nervous investors use gold as a backing currency.Industrial demand is also increasing.
The COPPER price has moved up over the last couple of months but seems now range bound.
Platinum prices are near their seventeen month highs.All the other PGM's that by the way ,are seperate metals but usually found in the same seam as Platinum prices are very high.
Now there seems to be talk of the market pulling back in America as it is believed it has overshot the conditions in the country.Every one from Motley Fool to CNN is trumpeting that there is going to be a massive pullback,almost willing it to happen.I am not certain what the motive is.Maybe just to sell their publications or genuine concern to tame the prices to make the recovery more sustainable over a longer period.I earnestly hope it is for the second reason that are suddenly taking such a negative veiw of things.This is not to say that things are alright on the ground ,by any means and yes there is likely to be a pullback soon,but i do not believe it will be massive!
They are mostly speaking about financial and commercial stocks.What will happen to resources is another subject entirely. Up to this point whenever their market has failed resource prices suddenly lurch upwards.Another point is that PLATINUM is nowhere near its highest high.About two years ago Platinum reached over $2200 per ounce in price.It is arounfd $1600 at the moment and recovering fast. PALLADIUM at one time in a spike reached over $1000 per ounce .It is now around $400 per ounce.
There is really a very small traded market for the PGM group metals and most of the major producers sell on contract.Some years ago Impala sold around 85% of their output on contract.I have no idea how much can be considered sold forward today as usually this is a well gaurded secret. It is difficult to find out who the buyers of the metals are as well as I think each group is afraid that another group might move in and try to steal their customers from under their noses.
The COPPER price has moved up over the last couple of months but seems now range bound.
Platinum prices are near their seventeen month highs.All the other PGM's that by the way ,are seperate metals but usually found in the same seam as Platinum prices are very high.
Now there seems to be talk of the market pulling back in America as it is believed it has overshot the conditions in the country.Every one from Motley Fool to CNN is trumpeting that there is going to be a massive pullback,almost willing it to happen.I am not certain what the motive is.Maybe just to sell their publications or genuine concern to tame the prices to make the recovery more sustainable over a longer period.I earnestly hope it is for the second reason that are suddenly taking such a negative veiw of things.This is not to say that things are alright on the ground ,by any means and yes there is likely to be a pullback soon,but i do not believe it will be massive!
They are mostly speaking about financial and commercial stocks.What will happen to resources is another subject entirely. Up to this point whenever their market has failed resource prices suddenly lurch upwards.Another point is that PLATINUM is nowhere near its highest high.About two years ago Platinum reached over $2200 per ounce in price.It is arounfd $1600 at the moment and recovering fast. PALLADIUM at one time in a spike reached over $1000 per ounce .It is now around $400 per ounce.
There is really a very small traded market for the PGM group metals and most of the major producers sell on contract.Some years ago Impala sold around 85% of their output on contract.I have no idea how much can be considered sold forward today as usually this is a well gaurded secret. It is difficult to find out who the buyers of the metals are as well as I think each group is afraid that another group might move in and try to steal their customers from under their noses.
Monday, January 11, 2010
2010 Update no 2
Unique Stock Exchange Trading Ideas
Hi all,
Interesting of late is that a shortage of coal is developing in both China and India as the world shows the first positive signs of moving out of the recession.To say nothing of Japan the most advanced industrialised country in the Far East.This must make them extremely nervous as they have to import all their fuel needs.
South Africa stands to gain as with Australia and the Pacific Rim countries are the nearest sources of fossil fuels,a decided advantage over, countries facing the Atlantic ocean.
The only constraint at the moment is that the line to Richards Bay cannot increase tonnage and are railing the same amount of coal as the previous two years.Government must surely take a hand in the situation as it seems as if Transnet is incapable of finding a solution.
Go to http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/
for the latest share update and also go to "veiw my complete profile" then go to the increasing popular Naomi's Derivitive Blog.
If platinum clears $1600 it seems as if the platinum majors will pay better dividends as from August onwards next year,giving a further imputis to their prices.
CLICK ON OLDER POSTS TO SEE INTERESTING INFORMATION ALSO USE VEIW MY PROFILE TO VISIT NAOMI'S SMALL CAP BLOGSPOT RIGHT DOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
Hi all,
Interesting of late is that a shortage of coal is developing in both China and India as the world shows the first positive signs of moving out of the recession.To say nothing of Japan the most advanced industrialised country in the Far East.This must make them extremely nervous as they have to import all their fuel needs.
South Africa stands to gain as with Australia and the Pacific Rim countries are the nearest sources of fossil fuels,a decided advantage over, countries facing the Atlantic ocean.
The only constraint at the moment is that the line to Richards Bay cannot increase tonnage and are railing the same amount of coal as the previous two years.Government must surely take a hand in the situation as it seems as if Transnet is incapable of finding a solution.
Go to http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/
for the latest share update and also go to "veiw my complete profile" then go to the increasing popular Naomi's Derivitive Blog.
If platinum clears $1600 it seems as if the platinum majors will pay better dividends as from August onwards next year,giving a further imputis to their prices.
CLICK ON OLDER POSTS TO SEE INTERESTING INFORMATION ALSO USE VEIW MY PROFILE TO VISIT NAOMI'S SMALL CAP BLOGSPOT RIGHT DOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
Friday, January 1, 2010
2010 Update no 1
First may I say to my followers on this site,as well as all forumites and visitors world wide the very best for the New Year, after a year that has been very rough on all of us! At any time you would like to comment or ask a question which I shall try to answer to the best of my ability use the comment below each post.
I see many news services are calling this the best year since 2003 as shares have risen more, in a year, than the last five years.This is not strictly accurate as the shares plunged up to mid-2009 by between forty to sixty percent ,within a period of eight months and I am talking about large cap shares that are not supposed to do that kind of thing!
Platinum has generally made a good recovery.
Jubilee is in talks which make this an exciting share,worth watching as they are exploring platinum,nickel and copper at the moment.
Remember also for more tips http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/ then go to My profile to have access to all my other blogs. See the latest on Metorex,Implats,Amplats and DRD.
News Item 5/1/10
Last year(2009) there was a positive investment of 79 billion Rand into the JSE from overseas investors,The previous year (2008) there was a loss ,so things are turning around nicely!
The Chinese and Japanese are buying into all the new medium and smaller cap exploration and operating companies on the African continent they can find. I have mixed feelings about especially the Chinese mainlanders as when things dont go their way they call in their government.A country where face saving enjoys a higher priority than a countries laws which everybody else must follow does not sit well with me.On occasion they bring in thousands of workers as happened in the Free State to their own exclusive villages where they do not mingle with locals has me wondering.The Western world should take note as many of the worlds strategic minerals occur in the Southern African region .If they cannot explore or open mines now they should approach their governments for Strategic assistance
I see many news services are calling this the best year since 2003 as shares have risen more, in a year, than the last five years.This is not strictly accurate as the shares plunged up to mid-2009 by between forty to sixty percent ,within a period of eight months and I am talking about large cap shares that are not supposed to do that kind of thing!
Platinum has generally made a good recovery.
Jubilee is in talks which make this an exciting share,worth watching as they are exploring platinum,nickel and copper at the moment.
Remember also for more tips http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/ then go to My profile to have access to all my other blogs. See the latest on Metorex,Implats,Amplats and DRD.
News Item 5/1/10
Last year(2009) there was a positive investment of 79 billion Rand into the JSE from overseas investors,The previous year (2008) there was a loss ,so things are turning around nicely!
The Chinese and Japanese are buying into all the new medium and smaller cap exploration and operating companies on the African continent they can find. I have mixed feelings about especially the Chinese mainlanders as when things dont go their way they call in their government.A country where face saving enjoys a higher priority than a countries laws which everybody else must follow does not sit well with me.On occasion they bring in thousands of workers as happened in the Free State to their own exclusive villages where they do not mingle with locals has me wondering.The Western world should take note as many of the worlds strategic minerals occur in the Southern African region .If they cannot explore or open mines now they should approach their governments for Strategic assistance
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