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July Posting

Unique Stock Exchange Trading Ideas.Well it has been an interesting month with the American market hesitating and not quite taking off,but it would seem they and Europe are in the recovery mode. Visit page 1  ADVANCED Stock and Share Trading Ideas to get every other blog that we run,
http://sashares2010.blogspot.com/


Another interesting blog for those electronic products you might find hard to find is    http://popgames12.blogspot.com/

June Posting.

The Rand trades in a range between R7.20 to about just over eight  Rand to the American Dollar.At the moment its strengthening,which now causes the resource shares to fall in price, which might be a good opportunity to buy as the price of commodities especially platinum and goldare going up.  Do go to http://www.barryvision.webs.com/ to see all my blogspots on the home page as well as page one.

May

The market now seems very skittish  as we these days follow the American market to a large degree,but in fact the DOW has only fallen back about 6% from its highs last week.It might fall another 4%.Every time the market climbs the commentators  mention the recovery in America and every time it falls they mention Greece.Quite laughable really ,NO MARKET GOES UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE. YOU DON'T HAVE TO TRADE DERIVITIVES but to get a good idea of how our market works do read Naomi's latest Derivitive trader. Go to    http://www.2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com/ 
makes good reading.

Sell off or Sell out?

Just one of the worst sell-off days in most Stock Markets worldwide.We will never get our problems right whilst politicians have not the will to tackle the problems and resort to all tipes of gimmicks to promote their own agendas to get themselves re-elected.Australia is a good exmple at the moment ,where the labour government has proposed a 40% surcharge on miners  profits.,right before the election .It is not likely to pass through the upper house of parlement,but has done irrepalible harm as now investors are been chased away.Supposedly the prime minister has suddenly discovered the minerals belong to the "people". How ever what he does not tell his electorate is how their government will probably fritter away any money so raised.America ,Europe ,South Africa are all fed the great democracy story.Now don't get me wrong ,I fought long and hard for democracy myself. Perhaps we should start to fight for Democracy with Responsibility instead,in future. IMPORTANT;
SEE MY BLOG  ON THE WORLD TUBULENCE ON THE 27 APRIL 2010 go to http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com

24 April 2010

Gold is here to stay and with HARMONY  mining in Papua New Guinea where the costs of mining gold are around $350 per ounce,this one new mine to watch out for.
Platinim is also on the march  as the world starts to recover .Read the full reports in early may on http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/
The next great chase is on
There is a word wide scramble to find LITHIUM,used in electric cars,computers etc.Over a hundred companies are taking part.Lithium is found in clays and brine.

The COAL price  has almost reached $100 per tonne FOB at Richards coal terminal.This is the first time for about a year that it has gone to this price.India and China is now taking 50% of our export coal.Europe is becoming worried about the future as they might NOT be able to get enough supplies in three months time to build up stocks for their next winter.

April update

 Both Mick Davis of Xstrata and Cynthia Carrol of Anglo have now issued statements that there can be no further expansuion of mining in South Africa unless the authorities take action to increase te supply of electricty.
Anglo has taken the additional steps of looking into the possibility of setting up their own power station to add at least another 30 % to the amount of electricty they already  have at their disposal.
Go also to the sashares2010 blogspot for the latest news
Today 9/4/2010 Escom got its 4 billion loan from the world bank to build its coal electricty generating powerstation.There were many reservations but as its going to be a cleaner burning power station along the lines of those at presently being erected in America,those opposing on those grounds really have not got a case.

March

  China has not the same out look as the rest of the world,when it  comes to its mineral resources.
  Although its the largest producer of gold at the moment,it really cares little about  its production,but jealously guards its base and industrial minerals.Any western mineral miner can get a permit to mine gold there and has some freedom as to where it decides to sell its production,but when it comes to the base metal category itis almost impossible to get a permit.The Chinese believe that that asset is best left in the ground.That is why they are now expandng outwards world wide and buying up all  those mineral assets as then they will have their own in reserve. 
Another fallacy is that they need our know how to succeed at mining.This is simply not so,as they have been mining for two thousand years and when they need to know exactly how to mine.
Become a follower of mine on Twitter,then choose those twitterers that suit you the best of my followeres and those I follow to supply you with the  best news and interests out there my twitter address is   http://www.twitter.com/naomibarry 
Simon has just sent me on twitter  an update from JSE DIRECT also I follow CLIVESIMKINS  and ALEX HOGG

Update

Sake24 is taking Escom to court to force it to give its very secretive deal it originally had in the nineties with Richards Bay Aliminium smelter out  to the  press as conditions have vastly changed since then.
 It is rumoured that Escom is supplying electricity at under cost price to the smelters.It is also rumoured that if  we don't supply the smelters at all we won't have an electricty crisis,if fact we shall have a surplass of electricty.

Update March

South Africa has fallen to fourth spot in gold production ,behind China Australia and America.
The electricty shortage in 2008 and the rising cost of production as our mines become older and deeper also weighed upon production.
Then there is a general policy in South Africa to mine the lower grade ore bodies when the price of gold rises and this is now the case.When the price falls again then the better ore bodies are mined,this is done to give continuity to mining as it is cheaper than   to close mines every time the price falls. 

There is expected to be a shortage in supplies of platinum in particular and in all PGMs in general during this year as the curtaling of production kicks in.The situation will probably only ease in a couple of years time as there is likely to be an increasing demand as the world recovers from the recession. 

Go to the sashare2010 blogspot for twice monthly updates.

Update March

   The Nasdaq has reached its highest point in eighteen months,since its loaded with technology shares ,it might be a good place look at shares for the future.
   The gold price may be running out of steam,although there is still a small upward bias in the price.

   The gold mines share prices have not picked up really  since the start of this year and at best the ir prices are churning.

   GOLD ETF's (EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS) are holding up quite well .They were in part responsible for the price of gold taking off. Now there is worry that as it becomes obvious that the recession is behind us there will be a huge sell-off causing the GOLD PRICE TO TUMBLE.

South Africa - 1982 Krugerrand 1/10 Oz. Gold Coin   If you feel that  you would like to hold something in gold,there are always coins that have an intrinsic value other than just being a metal hoarding exercise.Their specific history,condition and amount minted ,design also play a part.American Eagles Coins,South African Krugerrands Coins a re the best known and easiest to trade.

March 2010

Unique Stock Exchange Trading Ideas

Cnythia Carol the CEO of Anglo is taking a stronger line with the South African government and has told them there will be no expansion in production unless they  make  available another 10% above the capacity that was normal before last years cuts,on a permanent basis. Last year all mines were told to cut their electricity usage by 10% causing a great loss of revenue as no expansion could take place.

On another subject note that the FTSE index and the South African ALSI index follow an almost identical course ,with minor divergances only.
Mini Update 2March
The price of IRON ORE is expected to almost double during the next 18 months and this demand is expected  in EUROPE and THE AMERICAS . CHINESE DEMAND IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE BUT AT A SLOWER PACE.
I hope Kumba knows what its doing when it breaks the contract  to supply Mittal how ever unfair it might be.This issue should be fought in the courts. Imagine what a place the world would be if we were all able to break any contracts we don't like!
Followers can use their blog to e-mail us direct and then we shall reply,just say wether the blog is for Naomi or Barry or e-mail us direct on   bvbgerard46@gmail.com

Go to    http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/  for the March update important updates on platinum group metals.

Update no 4 2010

So the American market  has blown off some steam.Yes this is all part of a recovery.Since the market has started up from its lowest point  in the recession ,it has now had three reversals of between four and eight percent.This last one had two of the three days  reversals of over  two hundred points.
After such an event it does not take off  immediately on its upward path again but hesitates while confidence has to be rebuilt.It can be said this gives one a second chance of getting in again ,if you missed  the upturn the first time round.Do remember the average increase is over fifty percent from the lowest prices in the recession for the ALSI Index
Go to VEIW MY COMPLETE PROFILE  then to BLOGS I FOLLOW TO VEIW MY OTHER BLOGS

I see gold stock  in general and Harmony's CE0 in particular are worried about the huge costs of mining and the huge burden  of repayments that has to be made.

Amplats has suffered  from the report that they expected a much lower income,I should say are unlikely to gather momentum for fast increases any time soon ,although the future next uyear is very bright.
Kumba and Exxaro have a brighter future at thei stage.

MINI UPDATE 1/FEB/2010

AT A MINING CONFERENCE McCloskey of their contractor group  said recently  the COAL price is likely to move up within the next eight months from  Aroung $124 to $200 for steam coal.This was confirmed by the Anglo american delegate.
Of great importance to South Africa is that now 75% of our Coal is exported to India and China as we are in a stragecic position and unlike other minerals  are never going to loose this market.In time we should be able to export more for this ever growing market.

9/2/2010 mini update

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have asked China and Japan for a 40% increase in iron ore prices this year.Both Japan and China realise prices must go up,but I expect  tough negotiations to follow and probably the  increase will be nearer 15%

11/2/2010 mini update


  It is said that the economy of China will soon overcome that of Japan. Still it will only be a third the size of the United States.
Some fear that it will eventually become the largest ecomony ahead of the United States  even if it takes twenty years.There was the fear earlier that Japan would over take America.Due to many constraints this never materialised.
  Now the likelyhood of this happening  with China is slim as China has such a large population that must be looked after.First they must overcome several bubbles in their economy  that are likely to occur.Still not having the complete free market system would mask many "bubbles" that likley to occur.At the moment their banks carry a huge debt and efforts to save  them  are masked and the public are not aware of the true situation.
One thing is clear is that Japan might welcome slipping into third place as then the vindictive world would concentrate on reigning in China and leave Japan to recover and its economy to thrive as they are a fully free market economy.They have been bullied mostly by the United States over the last decade and they slipped into a long drawn out recession as a result of trying to comply with the demands placed upon them.


  The United States more in fustration of their own economic woes is now picking on China and there tensions building between the two.One manifestation is that the United States is suddenly worried about "human rights " some thing that not worried them for many years in the past. Google of course is also suddenly worried about Chinese interference of their programmes,also something that did not worry them in the past.
  This is likely to support precious metals as there is fear that China might put pressure upon America by turning partially to gold and also withdrawing funds fromAmerica and them in turn declaring that the Chinese holdings are annexed and that their money is worthless.I am sure none of this is likely to come to pass as cooler heads on both sides of the Pacific are likely to prevail.

Update no3 2010

It seems as if Greece is not over its monetary problems yet,This is likely to keep supporting the GOLD price.The European Union  also seems restless as the Greek situation is having a knock on effect.In America their government is at the moment seems able to manage their debt situation well, as the promise of things coming right is ,pushing the actual situation into the back ground so there is no likely hood of upward pressure on the yellow metal.Gold is like therefore to be range bound probably staying above $1080  per ounce for the month.Physical demand for the metal is picking up as well as various reserve banks through out the world replenish their stocks and ETF's  are still in demand as nervous investors use gold as a backing currency.Industrial demand is also increasing.

The COPPER price  has moved up over the last couple of months but seems now range bound.

Platinum prices are near their seventeen month highs.All the other PGM's that by the way ,are seperate metals but usually found in the same seam as Platinum prices are very high.

Now there seems to be  talk of the market pulling back in America as it is believed it has overshot the conditions in the country.Every one from Motley Fool to CNN is trumpeting that there is going  to be a massive pullback,almost willing it to happen.I am not certain what the motive is.Maybe just to sell  their publications or genuine concern to tame the prices to make the recovery more sustainable over a longer period.I earnestly hope it is for the second reason that are suddenly taking such a negative veiw  of things.This is not to say that things are alright on the ground ,by any means and yes there is likely to be a pullback soon,but i do not believe it will be massive!

They are mostly speaking about financial and commercial stocks.What will happen to resources is another subject entirely. Up to this point whenever their market has  failed resource prices suddenly lurch upwards.Another point is that PLATINUM is nowhere near its highest high.About two years ago Platinum reached over $2200 per ounce in price.It is arounfd $1600 at the moment and recovering fast. PALLADIUM at one time in a spike reached over $1000 per ounce .It is now around $400 per ounce.
There is really a very small traded market for the PGM group metals and most of the major producers sell on contract.Some years ago Impala sold around 85% of their output on contract.I have no idea how much can be considered sold forward   today as usually this is a well gaurded secret. It is difficult to find out who the buyers of the metals are as well as I think each group is afraid that another group might move in and try to steal their customers from under their noses.

2010 Update no 2

Unique Stock Exchange Trading Ideas

Hi all,
Interesting of late is that a shortage of coal is developing in both China and India as the world shows the first positive signs of moving out of the recession.To say nothing of Japan the most advanced industrialised country in the Far East.This must make them extremely nervous as they have to import all their fuel needs.

South Africa stands to gain as with Australia and the Pacific Rim countries are the nearest sources of fossil fuels,a decided advantage over, countries facing the Atlantic ocean.

The only constraint at the moment is that the line to Richards Bay cannot increase tonnage and are railing the same amount of coal as the previous two years.Government must surely take a hand in the situation as it seems as if  Transnet is incapable of finding a solution.

Go to http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/  
for the latest share update and also go to "veiw my complete profile" then go to the increasing popular Naomi's Derivitive Blog.

If platinum clears $1600 it seems as if the platinum majors will pay better dividends as from August onwards next year,giving a further imputis to their prices.

CLICK ON OLDER POSTS TO SEE INTERESTING INFORMATION ALSO USE  VEIW MY PROFILE TO VISIT NAOMI'S  SMALL CAP BLOGSPOT RIGHT DOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE

2010 Update no 1

First may I say to my followers on this site,as well as all forumites and visitors world wide the very best for the New Year, after a year that has been very rough on all of us!  At any time you would like to comment or ask a question which I shall try to answer to the best of my ability use the comment below each post.

I see many news services are calling this the best year since 2003 as shares have risen more, in a year, than the last five years.This is not strictly accurate as the shares  plunged up to mid-2009 by between forty to sixty percent ,within a period of eight months and I am talking about large cap shares that are not supposed to do that kind of thing!
Platinum has generally made a good recovery.
Jubilee  is in talks which make this an exciting share,worth watching as they are exploring platinum,nickel and copper at the moment.
Remember also for more tips http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com/ then go to My profile to have access to all my other blogs. See the latest on Metorex,Implats,Amplats and DRD.
  News Item 5/1/10
Last year(2009) there was a positive investment of  79 billion Rand into the JSE from overseas investors,The previous year (2008) there was a loss ,so things are turning around nicely! 

   The Chinese and Japanese are buying into all the new medium and smaller cap exploration and operating companies on the African continent they can find. I have mixed feelings about especially the Chinese mainlanders as when things dont go their way they call in their government.A country where face saving enjoys a higher priority than a countries laws which everybody else must follow does not sit well with me.On occasion they bring in thousands of workers as happened in the Free State to their own exclusive villages where they do not mingle with locals has me wondering.The Western world should take note as many of the worlds strategic minerals occur in the Southern African region .If they cannot explore or open mines now they should approach their governments for Strategic assistance