Update no 4 2010

So the American market  has blown off some steam.Yes this is all part of a recovery.Since the market has started up from its lowest point  in the recession ,it has now had three reversals of between four and eight percent.This last one had two of the three days  reversals of over  two hundred points.
After such an event it does not take off  immediately on its upward path again but hesitates while confidence has to be rebuilt.It can be said this gives one a second chance of getting in again ,if you missed  the upturn the first time round.Do remember the average increase is over fifty percent from the lowest prices in the recession for the ALSI Index
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I see gold stock  in general and Harmony's CE0 in particular are worried about the huge costs of mining and the huge burden  of repayments that has to be made.

Amplats has suffered  from the report that they expected a much lower income,I should say are unlikely to gather momentum for fast increases any time soon ,although the future next uyear is very bright.
Kumba and Exxaro have a brighter future at thei stage.

MINI UPDATE 1/FEB/2010

AT A MINING CONFERENCE McCloskey of their contractor group  said recently  the COAL price is likely to move up within the next eight months from  Aroung $124 to $200 for steam coal.This was confirmed by the Anglo american delegate.
Of great importance to South Africa is that now 75% of our Coal is exported to India and China as we are in a stragecic position and unlike other minerals  are never going to loose this market.In time we should be able to export more for this ever growing market.

9/2/2010 mini update

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have asked China and Japan for a 40% increase in iron ore prices this year.Both Japan and China realise prices must go up,but I expect  tough negotiations to follow and probably the  increase will be nearer 15%

11/2/2010 mini update


  It is said that the economy of China will soon overcome that of Japan. Still it will only be a third the size of the United States.
Some fear that it will eventually become the largest ecomony ahead of the United States  even if it takes twenty years.There was the fear earlier that Japan would over take America.Due to many constraints this never materialised.
  Now the likelyhood of this happening  with China is slim as China has such a large population that must be looked after.First they must overcome several bubbles in their economy  that are likely to occur.Still not having the complete free market system would mask many "bubbles" that likley to occur.At the moment their banks carry a huge debt and efforts to save  them  are masked and the public are not aware of the true situation.
One thing is clear is that Japan might welcome slipping into third place as then the vindictive world would concentrate on reigning in China and leave Japan to recover and its economy to thrive as they are a fully free market economy.They have been bullied mostly by the United States over the last decade and they slipped into a long drawn out recession as a result of trying to comply with the demands placed upon them.


  The United States more in fustration of their own economic woes is now picking on China and there tensions building between the two.One manifestation is that the United States is suddenly worried about "human rights " some thing that not worried them for many years in the past. Google of course is also suddenly worried about Chinese interference of their programmes,also something that did not worry them in the past.
  This is likely to support precious metals as there is fear that China might put pressure upon America by turning partially to gold and also withdrawing funds fromAmerica and them in turn declaring that the Chinese holdings are annexed and that their money is worthless.I am sure none of this is likely to come to pass as cooler heads on both sides of the Pacific are likely to prevail.